Analyst: Ending the war is key condition for Ukrainian nation's survival

Oleksiy Kushch. Photo: ua.news

Economist and financial analyst Oleksiy Kushch stated that the only condition for saving the Ukrainian nation is the end of the war. 

"The defining point is finding a mechanism to end the war. Ending the war is the key condition for saving the nation in this case," said the expert.

He stressed that calls for an endless confrontation directly undermine the country’s future: “When some politicians talk about an 'eternal war,' they are effectively adding fuel to the fire of the demographic crisis every time.”

According to Kushch, Ukraine has entered a sustained trend in which it "loses around 500,000 people every year solely due to continued migration abroad." At the same time, the birth rate has fallen below one child per woman – according to various estimates, to 0.8–0.9 – while the average life expectancy of men has dropped to approximately 63–65 years (according to some estimates, as low as 58), and that of women has fallen from 74 to 70 years.

The analyst predicts that the new generation born in Ukraine over the next 30 years will number no more than around 7 million people, and describes this scenario as optimistic, as it assumes the current trend will continue. "If the war continues, the situation will only get worse," he noted.

"Losing the ability to generate a numerically viable new generation of Ukrainians essentially means the dissolution of the nation into history. In other words, we have roughly 50 years of historical time," Kushch said.

He warned that the nation could enter a state of demographic crisis from which it would no longer be possible to recover: "A kind of point of no return will be reached."

The way out, in his view, could be social support for families and an open society modelled on Israel, which has grown its population from 3 to 10 million people since 1973.

Previously, the UOJ reported that British analysts estimated Ukraine's actual population at around 20 million people compared to 40 million in 2014.

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